The Real Estate Information Center (REIC) revealed the confidence index of housing developers in Bangkok and its vicinity in Q3/67 at 45.1, down 4.6 points compared to the same period last year and down 0.1 points compared to Q2/67. The overall index has been lower than the median for 7 consecutive quarters since Q1/66, reflecting that entrepreneurs are continuously losing confidence in the real estate market, but expect confidence to increase in the next 6 months.
Mr. Kamolpop Virapala, Managing Director of the Government Housing Bank (GHB) and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), revealed that the REIC has been continuously monitoring the confidence situation of housing developers since 2007-present. It was found that in Q3/67, entrepreneurs’ confidence decreased in almost every aspect compared to the previous quarter (QoQ). It was found that confidence… The sales side decreased the most by -6.6 points to 40.7 (from 47.3 in the previous quarter), followed by the investment confide
nce which decreased by -0.2 points to 47.4 (from 47.6 in the previous quarter). While the confidence in the performance increased by 2.5 points to 42.0 (from 39.5 in the previous quarter), the confidence in the launch of new projects and/or new phases increased by 1.6 points to 50.7 (from 49.1 in the previous quarter), the confidence in the cost of operations (inverse) increased by 1.5 points to 40.4 (from 38.9 in the previous quarter), and the confidence in employment increased by 0.9 points to 49.6 (from 48.7 in the previous quarter). However, almost every index value is lower than 50.0.
When classified by entrepreneur groups, it was found that the confidence in the current situation of entrepreneurs in the group of listed companies or public companies in the third quarter of 2024 had an index value of 47.9, lower than the previous quarter’s index value of 52.2 and lower than the median value of 50.0, indicating that entrepreneurs in the group of listed companies have decreased confidence in the current bu
siness situation and tend to be more anxious. It was found that confidence in sales decreased the most, at 43.8 (from 59.6 in the previous quarter), followed by confidence in investment, which decreased to 52.1 (from 57.7 in the previous quarter). In terms of opening new projects and/or new phases, it decreased to 52.1 (from 57.7 in the previous quarter) and the performance decreased to 47.7 (from 50.0 in the previous quarter). However, there were 2 areas where confidence in the index increased: the cost of operations (inverse) increased to 39.6 (from 36.5 in the previous quarter) and the employment increased to 52.1 (from 51.9 in the previous quarter).
Meanwhile, the Non-listed Companies group or medium-small entrepreneurs had a confidence index of 41.0, increased from 34.6 in the previous quarter but still lower than the median value of 50.0, indicating that the Non-listed Companies group had less confidence in the current business situation, similar to the Listed Companies group, but the trend was more re
laxed.
In this quarter, confidence of Non-listed Companies entrepreneurs increased in almost every aspect compared to the previous quarter. It was found that confidence in the opening of new projects and/or new phases increased the most at 48.6 (from 36.3 in the previous quarter), followed by confidence in performance, which increased to 33.3 (from 23.8 in the previous quarter), confidence in investment increased to 40.3 (from 32.5 in the previous quarter), confidence in sales increased to 36.1 (from 28.8 in the previous quarter), and confidence in employment increased to 45.8 (from 43.8). However, confidence in operating costs (inverse) decreased to 41.7 (from 42.5 in the previous quarter) (see Table 1 and Chart 1).
For the overall housing developer confidence index in Bangkok and its vicinity for the next 6 months (Expectations Index), the index value was at 51.6, an increase of 0.2 points when compared to the previous quarter (QoQ) with an index value of 51.4. This index value is higher than the median v
alue of 50.0, indicating that developers are confident in a positive view of the real estate business situation in the next 6 months. Considering each aspect, it was found that confidence in sales increased by 3.4 points to 57.8 (from 54.4 in the previous quarter), followed by confidence in operating costs (inverse), which increased by 2.9 points to 37.5 (from 34.6 in the previous quarter), confidence in employment increased by 2.2 points to 52.4 (from 50.2 in the previous quarter), and confidence in The performance index increased by 2.0 points to 53.0 (from 51.0 in the previous quarter). There were 2 areas of confidence that had lower index values ??from the previous quarter: confidence in the launch of new projects and/or new phases decreased by -6.3 points to 58.1 (from 64.4 in the previous quarter) and confidence in investment decreased by -3.1 points to 51.0 (from 54.1 in the previous quarter).
When classifying the entrepreneur groups, it was found that the Listed Companies group had a confidence index
value for the next 6 months of 51.8, down from the previous quarter’s index value of 54.9. This indicates that entrepreneurs in the Listed Companies group are confident in the real estate business in the next 6 months, but their confidence has decreased from the previous quarter. When considering confidence in each area, it was found that the Listed Companies group had decreased confidence in almost every area. Confidence in investment decreased to 47.9 (from 57.7 in the previous quarter), confidence in performance decreased to 52.3 (from 58.3 in the previous quarter), confidence in launching new projects and/or new phases decreased to 62.5 (from 67.3 in the previous quarter), and confidence in sales decreased to 58.3 (from 61.5 in the previous quarter). However, there were 2 areas whose confidence index values ??increased from the previous quarter: confidence in The cost of doing business (inverse) increased to 37.5 (from 32.7 in the previous quarter) and the confidence in employment increased to 52.1 (from
51.9 in the previous quarter).
While the entrepreneurs in the Non-listed Companies group had an index value of 51.4, an increase from the previous quarter’s index value of 46.3, indicating that entrepreneurs in the Non-listed Companies group have more confidence and a positive view of the real estate business situation in the next 6 months. When considering each aspect, it was found that confidence in performance increased to 54.2 (from 40.0 in the previous quarter), confidence in sales increased to 56.9 (from 43.8 in the previous quarter), confidence in investment increased to 55.6 (from 48.8 in the previous quarter), and confidence in employment increased to 52.8 (from 47.5 in the previous quarter). Meanwhile, confidence in the launch of new projects and/or new phases decreased to 51.4 (from 60.0 in the previous quarter). As for confidence in In terms of operating costs (inverse), the confidence level remains the same at 37.5 (see Table 2 and Chart 2).
Source: Thai News Agency
