Bangkok: “Charoen” is raising concerns over India’s potential price cuts on rice exports due to an overproduction scenario that has not been seen in the past 50 years. The president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association is worried about the implications of this surplus on the global supply and demand dynamics, particularly how it could affect Thai rice exports. In response, he has urged the Bank of Thailand to address the ongoing appreciation of the baht, which is influencing export pricing.
According to Thai News Agency, Pol. Lt. Col. Charoen Laothamatas, President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, highlighted the challenging situation for Thai rice exports during the ‘Thailand Rice Convention 2025’ conference. The event was organized by the Department of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce. It was estimated that the total volume of Thai rice exports for 2025 would reach 7.5 million tons, despite having exported around 2.5-2.6 million tons in the first four months of the year. The pressure on exports is attributed to a significant rise in global rice production, especially with India’s output reaching 140 million tons of milled rice, the highest in half a century.
While Thailand’s rice production remains stable due to sufficient water resources, the global market faces reduced demand, with countries like Indonesia, a major importer last year, possibly not importing rice this year. This mismatch between supply and demand presents a significant challenge for rice exports worldwide.
The focus now shifts to India’s export policies, as the country grapples with rice stocks thrice higher than normal at approximately 60 million tons. The release of such a volume into the global market without control could impact global rice prices, including those in Thailand.
Regarding the US import tax situation, it is not seen as a major issue for Thailand, as the country predominantly exports jasmine rice to the US. There is a possibility that as the US raises import taxes, countries that previously imported from the US might turn to Thailand or other Asian countries for their rice needs.
Pol. Lt. Col. Charoen noted the current low price of rice, with paddy rice selling for around 7,000 baht per ton. This low pricing might lead farmers to adjust their production strategies for the upcoming second-season rice harvest in August, possibly shifting from white rice to jasmine or Pathum rice.
Another concern is the fluctuating exchange rate of the baht compared to competitors like Vietnam and India, which affects pricing and competitiveness in the market. The Bank of Thailand has been called upon to stabilize the baht to support the export sector effectively.