Bangkok: Krungsri Research indicates that in 2025, the Thai economy and the global economy will recover.
According to Thai News Agency, the global economic outlook for 2025 is projected to grow close to the previous year’s 3.3%. Krungsri Research has also adjusted the forecast for Thai economic growth to 2.7%, slightly better than in 2024, driven by the tourism sector. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.00% for the rest of this year, as the global economy tends to recover.
Mrs. Pimnara Hirankasi, Head of Economic Research at Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited, stated that the global economy is likely to grow close to the previous year at 3.3%, but at a lower rate than the historical average. The easing of inflation is a supporting factor, enhancing people’s purchasing power and paving the way for major countries to gradually reduce interest rates to support economic growth and reduce the risk of recession. However, several factors such as high interest rates compared to historical averages, a large debt burden, uncertainty in US economic policy after Donald Trump’s re-election, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions are expected to pressure economic growth. Moreover, economic polarization led by the US and China through more severe trade barriers may trigger new trade wars and reinforce the deglobalization trend, impacting trade, investment, and the global economy.
The Thai economy is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, slightly improving from 2.5% in 2024, driven by temporary positive factors amidst domestic structural problems and changing global trends. The tourism sector is anticipated to see growth, with 38 million international tourists expected to arrive in 2025, up from 35.5 million in 2024, driven by increased demand and adjustments in supply, including more flights and expanded routes, as well as the Visa Free measure. Government spending is expected to return to normal after delays in 2024, with a 4.2% increase in the fiscal year 2025 budget and a record deficit of 4.5% of GDP.
Private investment is likely to expand by 2.6% after contracting in 2024, supported by investment promotion applications worth more than 1.1 trillion baht. However, exports, expected to expand by 2.7%, face challenges such as trade barriers and structural problems in the domestic manufacturing sector. Private consumption is projected to slow down, limited by factors such as the slow recovery of real income and high household debt, despite improvements in the tourism sector and economic stimulus measures.
The Thai business and industrial sectors are expected to gradually recover, driven by the expansion of the economy, tourism, and infrastructure investment. The modern service sector and high-tech industries such as electric vehicles and data centers are expected to be the main drivers, aligning with Industry 5.0 trends. Meanwhile, the automotive and real estate industries will face challenges from high household debt and trade tensions.
The ASEAN-5 economy is projected to expand by 4.6% in 2025, slightly up from the previous year’s 4.5%, driven by domestic demand, exports, and foreign direct investment. However, risks from external factors may increase economic uncertainty. The implementation of the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) and a tightening global financial situation due to US trade policies are key challenges.
Krungsri Research indicates that Thailand’s policy interest rate, reduced by 0.25% to 2.00% in February, is aligned with the latest economic outlook assessment and is expected to remain unchanged for the rest of the year to support economic recovery. The average headline inflation rate in 2025 is likely to remain near the lower bound of the target inflation range due to stable global crude oil prices and government measures to alleviate domestic energy costs.
Despite gradual growth in 2025, the Thai economy faces significant risks and challenges, including trade tensions, US policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, the influx of imported goods from China, severe climate change, and structural problems such as an aging society, high household debt, and reduced competitiveness.