Bangkok: Asia Plus Securities sees the Thai stock market as having passed its lowest point amidst global economic pressures. Mr. Thetsak Thaweetiratham, Executive Director of Asia Plus Securities, asserts that the impact of the US tax hike is unlikely to push the Thai stock market below the support level of 1,060 points. He suggests that the Thai government should reconsider the 10,000 baht handout and instead allocate the budget toward combating the trade war.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Thetsak expressed concerns about Thailand’s GDP, predicting potential declines in the second and third quarters of 2025. This forecasted drop could lead to a technical recession, following a significant government budget injection in the first quarter. The absence of a clear economic stimulus plan and the ongoing trade war contribute to these economic vulnerabilities.
Mr. Thetsak recommended that the government cancel the planned 10,000 baht handout and redirect those funds to address trade war challenges. He emphasized the importance of preparedness as the trade war intensifies. He also highlighted potential adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, with a possible increase in the fiscal discipline framework from a public debt of 70% of GDP and an expected interest rate cut by the MPC to 1.75% in their April 2025 meeting.
Asia Plus Securities projects that Thailand’s GDP growth might fall below 2.0% this year due to heightened global market competition and reduced foreign direct investment. The anticipated US import tax hikes in the second quarter could lead to global GDP growth falling below 3%, further pressuring Thailand’s export sector.
For the second quarter of 2025, the Thai stock index is projected to have a resistance level of 1,160 – 1,180 points, with a support level at 1,060 points. By the end of 2025, under conservative estimates, the target index is set at 1,424 points, factoring in an earnings per share estimate of 89 baht, a policy interest rate of 2%, and a 4.5% spread between government bond yields and stock market yield.
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