Bangkok: Kasikorn Research Center anticipates a downturn in Thailand’s foreign tourist market this year, projecting a 2.8% contraction by 2025 with an expected 34.5 million visitors, a first in three years.
According to Thai News Agency, Kasikorn Research Center highlights several negative influences impacting Thailand’s foreign tourism. Between January 1 and May 11, 2025, the country saw 12.9 million foreign tourists, marking a 1% year-on-year decline. Factors contributing to this trend include the global economic slowdown, diminished tourism competitiveness, evolving tourist behaviors, and geopolitical tensions.
Kasikorn Research Center forecasts a 3% decrease in tourism revenue from foreign visitors, totaling approximately 1.62 trillion baht for the year. The main markets experiencing a downturn are China, Malaysia, and South Korea, although there is potential growth from India, provided no further incidents occur between India and Pakistan.
While European tourists from Russia, Germany, France, and the UK continue to visit Thailand, bolstered by expanded direct flights, and travelers from the Middle East show interest, these increases may not offset the declines from key markets like China.
The predicted tourism revenue spread across related sectors is around 1.62 trillion baht, with an average tourist spend of 47,000 baht per trip. This slight contraction reflects cautious spending habits, particularly among young and middle-income travelers, who are opting for cost-effective options like street food.
Four key challenges loom over Thai tourism: the global economic slowdown, unresolved geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and a perceived decline in safety, especially among Chinese tourists. A survey by Dragon Trail in April 2025 indicated only 19% of Chinese respondents felt Thailand was safe, compared to 51% who did not.
Increased costs in Thailand, including a 34% rise in average daily room rates compared to 2019, further strain its competitiveness. Tourists entering Thailand face a lower average trip cost of 1,300 US dollars, compared to Japan and Singapore, highlighting a focus on value for money.
The international tourism landscape remains fiercely competitive, with countries like South Korea and Vietnam introducing measures to attract tourists, such as visa-free travel for Chinese group tours and a 10-year Golden Visa. Meanwhile, airlines’ forward flight plans show an 18% growth in flights to China and 16% to Japan, against only an 8% increase for Thailand, indicating shifting traveler preferences.
