Bangkok: Kasikorn Research Center expects Thailand’s GDP to grow by 1.5% in 2025 following the finalization of a US tariff deal.
According to Thai News Agency, the agreement has resulted in an improved tariff rate of 19%, which supports the economic outlook for Thailand in 2025.
The Kasikorn Research Center announced that on August 1, 2025, the United States implemented a new reciprocal tariff on Thailand, reducing it from 36% to 19%. This rate aligns with the ASEAN region and offers a better position than Vietnam. Consequently, the center has revised its forecast for Thai exports in the latter half of 2025 to a more positive stance.
Under the terms of the trade agreement, Thailand will be exempt from tariffs on approximately 90% of all US imports, while also reducing non-tariff trade barriers. Despite these changes, the Kasikorn Research Center anticipates that the opening of the US import market will not lead to a significant influx of US goods into Thailand.
The Thai economy in 2025 is projected to experience a slight boost in growth, reaching 1.5%, compared to an earlier forecast of 1.4%. This is despite challenges such as lower-than-expected tourism growth, pressures from the Thai-Cambodian conflict, and potentially lower-than-expected budget disbursements.
Regarding Thai motorcycle exports, the 19% reciprocal tariff is expected to impact certain motorcycle models exported to the US. Models that may face increased competition include those with a displacement greater than 800 cc and those with a displacement greater than 90 cc but not exceeding 190 cc. However, about 56% of motorcycle exports from Thailand to the US remain price competitive, and the value of motorcycle exports in 2025 is expected to grow by 28% year-over-year, despite the increased import tariffs.