Bangkok, July 3 – Analysts expect the economy to recover. Support the stock index to recover at the end of the year to reach 1,630 points, reduce the 2023 GDP forecast to 3.38%, keep an eye on government establishment, domestic politics, Fed interest rates, and the global economy.
Mr. Sombat Narawutthichai, Secretary-General of the Investment Analysts Association Revealing the results of a survey of 25 companies’ members, analysts and fund managers on investment views in the second half of 2023, which can be summarized as follows:
Most viewed that the price of crude oil this year has been reduced from $ 83.04 per barrel to $ 80.53 per barrel. And reduce the forecast of Thai GDP growth in 2023 from the original 3.50% (Apr. 23) down to 3.38% from the Risk Free Rate survey used in the valuation. The average value is 2.76% and the assumption of the market risk premium used in the valuation is 7.12%.
As for the factor that will affect the direction of investment in the second half of 2023, there is only one factor: the domestic economy, 72%. 80% came from global economic factors, followed by the US interest rate direction at 68%, followed by foreign political factors at 64%, and the reduction or end of quantitative easing (QE) measures of key countries around the world at 60%. Next is Fund Flows outflow of 59% and domestic political factors have as many as 55%.
Factors to keep an eye on in the third quarter of 2023 are the establishment of the government. domestic politics Fed interest rates and global economic conditions
Regarding the MPC’s policy interest rate adjustment in the second half of 2023, 61.54% of analysts expected an increase of 0.50%, followed by 38.46% who saw an increase of only 0.25% and 36% who saw fixed
The average earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 93.21 baht, downgraded from the previous survey, which was 95.77 baht per share, and this time the EPS growth forecast for 2023 is 7.61%.
While expecting the SET Index in Q3 2023, 36% of voters expect it to be sideways, while 32% of respondents see the market moving in equal positive and negative directions. SET Index at the end of Q3 was at 1568 points.
As for the perspective from the third quarter to the end of the year, the SET Index is expected to swing within a range of 1,454 to 1,643 points and is expected to close at 1630 at the end of 2023.
Analysts recommend diversifying investment portfolios, divided into cash and short-term deposits 14.24%, bond funds, 22.83% Thai stocks or Thai stock funds, 24.87% stocks or foreign stock funds, 23.83% real estate funds or REITs, 6.59% gold. Or other 7.43% gold funds such as crypto 0.21%
with an opinion on sending foreign stock capital foreign stock funds Introducing Technology Fund China and Asia stock funds from the reopening of economic activities to normal again. For investing in Thai stocks It is recommended to increase investment weight in the sectors of retail, banking, medical and tourism. while reducing the weight of investments in finance (non-bank), petrochemical, energy and utilities businesses.
List of stocks recommended by analysts with the same number of recommending analyst firms from 5 or more firms are as follows (sorted by abbreviation):
ADVANC sees that industry competition is declining. good for business
AOT, driven by the recovery of the tourism sector.
BBL considers that it has expertise in large business loans. with market share being No. 1 in this market, this type of loan, despite the low risk But it has low risk. In addition, BBL has most of its loans with floating interest rates. and has a high proportion of fixed deposits which benefited most from rising interest rates It also supports a lot of risks. The reserve ratio to NPL is 243%, which is much higher than the average of 171% among banks.
CPALL Supporting factors from increasing consumption tourists recovering
SCB sees that it benefits from the MPC opening a channel to raise interest rates. Good for bank stocks as a whole, and the price is still Laggard. The group for stocks that should be avoided, including Dela stocks, greatly exceeds the fundamental value. and stocks that may be affected by the new government’s policies
Finally, analysts also added recommendations to the new government on policies that will have a positive effect on the economy. worth the impact on the budget Most of them spoke about both short-term and long-term economic stimulus measures. Separately, it is a policy to stimulate investment. Helping the business sector, including policies to stimulate foreign investment expanding the export market. Next, accelerating investment in infrastructure. Public investment that supports the potential of economic growth and is followed by a policy to help people, for example, postpone stock tax collection. Reduce personal income tax There are measures to reduce the cost of living. Instead of raising the minimum wage and canceling the policy of giving money.-Thai News Agency
Source: Thai News Agency
