Tehran: Following the joint U.S. and Israeli military operation, Operation Epic Fury, on Saturday, which resulted in the deaths of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and at least 40 high-ranking officials, the Iranian government retaliated immediately. The government declared that this retaliatory operation targeted Israel and military bases linked to the U.S. throughout the region, including U.S. forces stationed in Gulf Arab countries.
According to Thai News Agency, the attacks and retaliations between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, have left the world wondering whether this will be just a short-term cycle of counterattacks or evolve into a protracted conflict. This depends on Iran's attack range capabilities, the power of its allied forces, and the pressure Iran exerts on shipping lanes and energy infrastructure.
The possibility of a short-term or prolonged conflict hinges on Iran's missile arsenal, as well as the platforms and other tools Iran could use to inflict pain on the United States and other parties.
What makes this situation more intense and different from the 12-day war that the US and Israel waged against Iran in June 2025 is the assassination of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader who had held the heart and soul of the Iranian regime for 37 years. This is a key factor that has led Iran to believe that this clash will be a battle for the survival of the Islamic Republic.
From Iran's perspective, a delayed or limited response risks being interpreted as weakness and further fueling attacks from the opposition. Iranian President Masoud Pezekyan declared on Sunday that avenging the deaths of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and other high-ranking officials is the "just duty and right" of the country.
Missile Strategy: The Core of Iran's Military Power
Iran's missile arsenal is central to both combat tactics and early warning systems. Security analysts describe it as the largest and most diverse arsenal in the Middle East, encompassing both ballistic and cruise missiles designed to give Iran long-range and powerful capabilities, even though its air force is not modernized. The Iranian Air Force relies on aging and outdated aircraft, making its missile program crucial for national defense. Western governments argue that Iran's missile possession poses a threat to regional security and could potentially be used to install nuclear warheads in the future-accusations Iran has consistently denied.
Examining the capabilities of Iranian missiles reveals that Iran's longest-range missiles are capable of traveling 2,000 to 2,500 kilometers, meaning Iran could accurately fire these missiles at Israel and US-linked military bases throughout the Gulf region. However, in reality, Iran's current capabilities are not yet sufficient to send intercontinental ballistic missiles to the United States as claimed.
Short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), with a range of approximately 150-800 km, are designed for rapid close-range engagement with military targets. This short range becomes an advantage in critical situations because these weapons can be fired in large bursts, or in volleys, significantly reducing the compressing warning time and making it much more difficult for the enemy to intercept them in advance.
Medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) with ranges of 1,500-2,000 kilometers are the factor that could turn retaliation into a regional crisis. Weapon systems such as the Shahab-3, Emad, Ghadr-1, as well as the Khorramshahr and Sejjil families, are fundamental to Iran's ability to strike at longer distances.
Cruise missiles, flying at low altitudes, can navigate rough terrain, making them difficult for radar to detect, especially when launched alongside drones or in combination with ballistic salvos designed to overload the opponent's air defenses. Furthermore, drones offer an additional layer of pressure. Suicide drones can be used in repeated waves to cripple the enemy's air defense systems and keep critical infrastructure such as airports and seaports under constant surveillance for hours.
Iran has also spent years building a network of underground weapons storage tunnels, secret bases, and weapons launch sites across the country, all heavily fortified. This network makes Iran difficult to subdue and, moreover, makes adversaries realize that Iran remains capable of retaliating even after a major attack.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital channel for transporting oil and natural gas. Iran has a strategic advantage and the power to disrupt global markets. This can be achieved by closing the Strait of Hormuz and by threatening naval and commercial ships with anti-ship missiles, mines, drones, and fast attack boats.
Iran has consistently warned that any attack on Iranian soil would be the start of a wider war. Therefore, the conflict that erupted after the US and Israeli airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has further intensified Iran's assertive message. The retaliation strongly emphasized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be more than just a one-off event, as the conflict could potentially escalate through allied groups pro-Iran, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Both groups condemned the killing of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and signaled their willingness to cooperate with Tehran in this conflict. This is in addition to the potential for further unrest among Shia Muslim groups in other countries, as seen in the recent incident in front of the US Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan.