Bangkok: The conflict in the Middle East is reaching a point that the world must watch closely, as the confrontation between Iran and its allies, the United States and Israel, intensifies. Associate Professor Dr. Muhammad Ilyas Yaprung, a lecturer in the Faculty of Political Science at Ramkhamhaeng University, believes that the current problem may not be primarily caused by nuclear weapons, as many believe, but rather by a power struggle and an attempt to reorganize the region.
According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Muhammad pointed out that the nuclear weapons issue is merely a pretext for attacking Iran, because Iran is the most militarily capable country in the region and has been an adversary of the United States and Israel for a long time since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Even though negotiations through intermediaries like Oman have nearly resulted in agreements on several occasions, Israel has always chosen to use attacks to disrupt those processes.
The primary goal of the United States and Israel in this operation is to destroy Iran's military infrastructure in order to reduce its capabilities to the same level as Iraq in the past. This time, they have chosen not to send ground forces, learning from the losses of the Iraq War, but instead will use airstrikes combined with support for ethnic minorities opposed to the Iranian government to undermine Iran from within.
On Iran's side, the shift in strategy involves targeting US military bases in neighboring countries such as Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait to counter threats and dismantle support for such attacks. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Muhammad believes Iran is skilled in long-term warfare and can withstand attacks, but a prolonged war would have a severe impact on energy prices and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a concern for major powers.
One of the most worrying issues is the social impact within the country. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Muhammad explained that in times of war, the hawks always step up to play a leading role, while groups advocating for peace or democracy are often silenced by nationalist rhetoric. The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the previous supreme leader, as the new leader further reinforces the strength of the hawks and their belief in the traditional Shia system of hereditary succession.
Associate Professor Dr. Muhammad further analyzed that attempts to change the regime in Iran are extremely difficult because Iran's system of government is tied to religious beliefs, unlike most secular states. Attacking the leader is therefore seen as waging a religious war or jihad to them.
However, ultimately, even if war ends in a short time with superior weaponry, a victory achieved amidst ruin and immense loss will not truly benefit humanity.