Bangkok:Global economic resilience is nearing its limits, facing significant risks from ongoing conflicts, high debt levels, and potential bottlenecks in artificial intelligence, according to a warning from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to Thai News Agency, Silvana Tenreyro, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research at the IMF, highlighted these concerns during the 2026 IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok. Tenreyro presented the latest World Economic Outlook report, emphasizing that while the global economy has previously withstood various shocks, its buffer is now diminishing.
The IMF forecasts global economic growth at 3.1% for this year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to last year, with a slight increase anticipated to 3.4% in 2027. Global headline inflation is expected to stay high at 4.7% this year, before easing to 4.1% by 2027.
The report identifies two opposing forces influencing current global economic trends. Negative supply shocks, such as geopolitical conflicts and wars, particularly in the Middle East, have increased prices for crude oil and other petroleum products, negatively impacting economic activity and driving inflation. Conversely, a positive demand shock from increased interest and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is boosting global trade and investment.
Three critical risk factors are outlined in the report as dampening global recovery strained energy and commodity buffers, concentrated AI supply chains, and fiscal burdens alongside higher borrowing costs. These risks threaten global growth, potentially reducing it to 2.5% this year without intervention.
To mitigate these risks, Tenreyro urged countries to implement solid policy measures. These include maintaining strict fiscal discipline, accelerating deficit reduction, and ensuring monetary policies keep inflation within target ranges while preserving central bank independence. The primary goal is to transition from merely coping with challenges to restoring fiscal space and supply-side resilience for sustainable growth.