Tunis:The International Monetary Fund warns that the global economy is at risk of slowing growth, with its resilience reaching a critical limit due to factors such as conflict, high debt, and challenges in the AI sector. At the 2026 annual meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, Silvana Tenreiro, economic advisor and director of research at the IMF, presented the latest World Economic Outlook report. She noted that while the global economy has previously shown resilience to various shocks, this ability to withstand disruptions is now facing significant downside risks.
According to Thai News Agency, the IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.1% this year, which marks a 0.40% decrease from the previous year. However, a slight increase to 3.4% is anticipated in 2027. Meanwhile, global inflation is expected to remain high at 4.7% this year, with a projected decline to 4.1% by 2027.
The report highlights three critical constraints impacting the global economy. First, energy and commodity constraints are causing strain, as mitigation mechanisms like drawing from oil stockpiles or enhancing energy efficiency are reaching their limits. Without these, growth could fall to just 2.5% this year. Second, while AI technology boosts demand and investment, the concentration of AI supply chains in a few countries poses risks, including potential bottlenecks and cyber threats. Third, high public debt levels, coupled with rising interest rates, are limiting fiscal space in many countries.
Silvana Tenreiro emphasized the need for policy shifts from merely "coping" to achieving "recovery." She recommended that member states implement tight and prudent fiscal policies, accelerate deficit reductions to manage public debt sustainably, and ensure that central banks maintain a firm stance on inflation while preserving their independence. The goal is to transition towards recovering fiscal capacity and enhancing supply-side resilience to lay the groundwork for sustainable growth.