Bangkok: The Kasikorn Research Center has disclosed that the financial market is intently observing the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting regarding interest rate cuts, alongside domestic political developments and foreign capital trends. The baht is projected to fluctuate between 31.20 and 32.00 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, the Thai stock index is anticipated to find support at 1,275 and 1,255 points, with resistance levels at 1,300 and 1,315 points.
According to Thai News Agency, last week witnessed the baht strengthening beyond 32.00 baht per dollar, reaching a four-year high of 31.58 baht per dollar earlier in the week. This movement aligned with the rise in global gold prices and the strengthening of the yuan and other regional currencies, coupled with sustained selling pressure on the dollar. Midweek, the baht weakened following a decline in global gold prices and dollar buybacks, only to rebound and strengthen again towards the week’s end.
For the week of September 15-19, Kasikornbank forecasts the baht to trade within a specified range of 31.20-32.00 baht per dollar. The Kasikorn Research Center highlights key factors to be monitored, such as the results of the monetary policy meeting, the Fed’s economic forecast and new dot plot slated for September 16-17, foreign fund flow direction, and global gold price trends. Important US economic indicators include retail sales, industrial production, the import and export price index, August housing starts, New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity surveys, the September housing market index, and weekly jobless claims. The market also anticipates the outcomes of the BoE and BoJ meetings on September 18-19, alongside China’s August economic figures and the August inflation rates for the UK, Eurozone, and Japan.
The Thai stock market experienced a significant boost last week, reaching a seven-month high of 1,299.19 points, driven by favorable domestic and international factors, particularly in retail stocks. The optimism surrounding the smooth formation of a new Thai government and the anticipated economic stimulus measures further fueled this upward momentum. Additionally, market sentiment was positively influenced by expectations of a Fed interest rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting. However, bank stocks saw a decline due to the ex-dividend date (XD) mark during the week.
Looking ahead to this week, Kasikorn Securities identifies support levels at 1,275 and 1,255 points, with resistance levels at 1,300 and 1,315 points. Kasikorn Research Center emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring the Fed meeting on September 16-17, domestic political developments, and foreign capital flows. Crucial US economic data encompasses August retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts, along with weekly jobless claims. Other significant international economic indicators include the Bank of Japan and Bank of England meetings, the August consumer price index for Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as July Eurozone industrial production and August economic data from China, including industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment.