Bangkok: Next week, financial analysts are closely monitoring the Middle East, oil prices, and fund flows, with the Thai baht predicted to fluctuate between 32.30 and 33.20 baht per dollar.
According to Thai News Agency, the Kasikorn Research Center reported that the Thai baht has experienced volatility, reaching its weakest level in nine months before a slight recovery. The center forecasts the baht to fluctuate between 32.30 and 33.20 baht next week, while the SET Index is expected to trade within the 1,400-1,460 point range. Key factors to monitor include Thai export figures, global oil prices, the situation in the Middle East, foreign fund flows, and statements from Federal Reserve officials.
Kasikorn Research Center noted that the Thai baht initially weakened last week due to pressure from global oil prices. It recovered as the US dollar weakened due to lower US bond yields and portfolio adjustments ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. However, the baht weakened again, reaching its weakest level in almost nine months at 32.93 baht per dollar, driven by falling gold prices and concerns over the Middle East. The baht then partially recovered towards the end of the week due to dollar selling pressure after signals from the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and European Central Bank that they would maintain high interest rates. On Friday, March 20, 2026, the baht closed at 32.67 baht per dollar, up from 32.30 baht per dollar the previous week. Foreign investors were net sellers of Thai stocks totaling 3,216 million baht, with net outflows of 8,943 million baht from the Thai bond market.
For the week of March 23-27, 2026, Kasikorn Bank forecasts the Thai baht to trade within a range of 32.30-33.20 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Center assesses key factors to watch, including Thailand's February export figures, the situation in the Middle East, the direction of global oil prices, foreign fund flows, and statements from Federal Reserve officials. Important US economic data includes February import/export price indices, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations index, preliminary March PMI figures, private sector employment figures, and weekly jobless claims. Additionally, the market is awaiting preliminary March PMI data for Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as February inflation rates for Japan and the UK.
The SET Index fluctuated throughout the week, initially declining due to selling pressure from foreign investors in the banking, energy, and retail sectors. It recovered in line with regional markets after Iran partially eased shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting buying in the energy and petrochemical sectors. However, the index weakened again, mirroring global market downturns due to tensions in the Middle East and signals of a slowdown in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It then rebounded towards the end of the week on news that Israel would not attack Iranian energy facilities and increased clarity on domestic political developments. On Friday, March 20, 2026, the SET Index closed at 1,432.99 points, up 1.68% from the previous week, while average daily trading volume was 64,480.02 million baht, down 8.96%. The mai Index closed at 219.08 points, up 0.47%.
For the following week (March 23-27, 2026), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. forecasts that the Thai stock index will have support levels at 1,415 and 1,400 points, while resistance levels are at 1,445 and 1,460 points, respectively. Kasikorn Research Center assesses key factors to monitor include Thailand's February export figures, the tense situation in the Middle East, and the direction of foreign capital flows. Important US economic data includes the preliminary March manufacturing and services PMI indices and weekly jobless claims. Other key international economic factors include Japan's February consumer price index, the preliminary March manufacturing and services PMI indices for Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as China's January-February industrial profit figures.