Bangkok: By 2025, Thailand's oil consumption is projected to reach 154.85 million liters per day, marking a 0.2% decrease compared to the previous year.
According to Thai News Agency, the Department of Energy Business outlined that natural gas for vehicles (NGV) will witness the largest decline at 16.4%, followed by diesel with a 2.6% decrease and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) falling by 1.4%. In contrast, consumption of commercial aviation fuel (Jet A1) is expected to rise by 7.6%, fuel oil by 6.3%, and gasoline by 1.1%.
Mr. Sarawut Kaewtathip, Director-General of the Department of Energy Business, stated that gasoline consumption in 2025 will average 31.72 million liters daily, a 1.1% increase. Specifically, Gasohol 95 consumption is set to rise due to a reduction in the price difference with Gasohol 91 to 0.38 baht per liter, compared to 0.79 baht per liter in the previous year. Gasohol 91, Gasohol E20, Benzine, and Gasohol E85, however, are all expected to see declines in daily consumption.
Diesel fuel consumption will average 65.03 million liters per day, a reduction of 2.6%. This is in line with the Fiscal Policy Office's revised GDP growth forecast for 2025, now at 2.2%, down from 2.4%. Factors contributing to this revision include a slower-than-expected economic performance in the third quarter and a manufacturing sector slowdown, reflected in a 12-month average Industrial Production Index contraction of 0.8% and a Shipment Index contraction of 1.3%.
Jet A1 fuel usage is projected to grow by 7.6%, supported by a 5.2% increase in flight numbers and government measures boosting domestic tourism. This growth is expected to contribute to a 1.0% increase in domestic passenger numbers and a 4.48% rise in air cargo transportation in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is anticipated to further align the aviation industry with international environmental standards.
LPG consumption will decrease by 1.4% to 18.01 million kg/day, driven by reductions in the petrochemical and transportation sectors. However, household and industrial LPG usage is expected to rise. NGV consumption is forecasted to decline by 16.4%, correlating with a reduction in NGV-registered vehicles and the closure of service stations.
Thailand's average daily fuel import volume is projected to fall by 1.7% to 1,006,959 barrels/day, with a total import value of 74,157 million baht/month. This includes a significant decrease in refined petroleum product imports, while crude oil imports will see a marginal decline. Meanwhile, the Tourism Authority of Thailand reports a decrease in the average daily export volume of refined oil products by 18.6%, with a total export value of 12,245 million baht per month.