Bangkok: Amidst the escalating unrest in the Middle East, directly impacting energy confidence in Thailand, Professor Veera Teerapat offered an insightful perspective on the background of oil prices, reserves, and the true reasons behind the phenomenon of "gas stations running out of fuel" in many areas, as discussed on the program "Kuy Dai Kuy Dee".
According to Thai News Agency, the current government is heavily using the Fuel Fund mechanism to subsidize fuel prices, especially diesel, which receives a subsidy of up to 18 baht per liter. Without this compensation, the price of diesel at the pump would soar to 48 baht per liter. As a result of continuous price subsidies over the past ten days or so, the Oil Fund has already in a deficit of more than 12 billion baht. This represents the large sum of money used in a short period of time to stabilize prices in accordance with government policy.
Professor Weera explained the structure of the oil reserves that the government states will last approximately 95-96 days, so that the public can understand the true meaning of the word "reserve," which consists of several components. These include a legal reserve of 25 days, a commercial reservation of 15 days, crude oil during shipping by sea for 25 days, and crude oil under a forward supply contract for 30 days. Professor Weera emphasized that the supply side, or the oil itself, is not the problem. The issue lies in trust and management.
Images of long queues of people waiting to refuel at gas stations, forcing some stations to put up "out of fuel" signs or limit refueling to 500-700 baht, are, in Professor Weera's analysis, a result of a combination of factors. Panic buying due to fears of oil shortages and rising prices on March 17th caused people to rush to fill up their gas tanks simultaneously. Logistical problems have also contributed, as the sudden surge in demand means that the limited number of fuel trucks cannot keep up with normal delivery schedules, causing shortages at some gas stations.
Additionally, large trucks are switching to having their trucks refuel at gas stations instead of buying directly from depots because gas station prices are lower than unsubsidized wholesale prices (a difference of 11-12 baht), causing the amount of fuel available at gas stations to be depleted more quickly.
Professor Weera's key advice in this situation is to remain mindful and differentiate between "our problem" and "their problem," suggesting that "suffering is meant to be understood, not to cause distress." He also added that if the government hasn't officially announced "oil rationing," it indicates that the supply chain is still functioning correctly. Professor Weera concluded with his personal experience, stating that while many people were panicking, they were still able to refuel with diesel at some gas stations as usual without waiting in line. This reflects the significant role of "crowd psychology" in this crisis.