Beijing: President Donald Trump's recent visit to China, accompanied by a delegation of global CEOs, was anticipated to be a pivotal moment in the relationship between the two superpowers. However, the outcomes of the visit have raised more questions than answers. Dr. Supavud Saichue provides a critical analysis of the visit, suggesting that the results may not meet the high expectations set by the international community.
According to Thai News Agency, China's most significant proposal was the framework for a "Constructive Relationship for Strategic Stability." Dr. Supavud highlights that China perceives the United States as a declining superpower, which still holds the potential to cause global unrest. Therefore, China is seeking clarity and predictability in Trump's policies to mitigate potential disruptions to the global economy, particularly in relation to the goods it exports worldwide.
The visit also touched on technological cooperation, particularly surrounding the sale of NVIDIA H200 chips to China. Despite speculations, the joint statement lacked concrete details. Dr. Supavud reveals that although the US had previously approved the sale, China has delayed the process to encourage domestic reliance on Huawei chips, aiming to reduce its dependence on American technology.
The discussions between Trump and Xi Jinping also delved into global political issues, including Iran, Taiwan, and regional stability. Both leaders agreed on the importance of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and maintaining open passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, China remained non-committal in mediating a resolution. Additionally, Trump's strategy of using arms sales to Taiwan as leverage against China has drawn criticism, potentially impacting the confidence of allies such as Japan and South Korea.
In the economic sphere, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reported a better-than-expected GDP growth for Thailand in the first quarter, primarily driven by private consumption and government investment. Despite this, Dr. Supavud notes that high energy prices and living costs are preventing the public from feeling the positive effects of the economic growth.
Dr. Supavud warns of a "Perfect Storm" looming over the global economy in the second half of the year, driven by two primary factors: a potential oil crisis and AI-driven inflation. With global oil stocks nearing depletion, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to significant shortages, propelling oil prices to $150. Additionally, the demand for data centers is spurring massive hardware purchases, which could drive inflation and compel central banks to raise interest rates amidst an economic downturn.
In conclusion, while the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping may have symbolically reduced some tensions, unresolved issues in technology, security, and energy pose significant challenges that require vigilant monitoring by the international community and Thailand.