Bangkok: Thepthai confidently predicts that the Bhumjaithai Party's draft constitutional amendment will pass with 100% certainty, pointing out that the Constitutional Drafting Committee model is designed to give the blue camp an advantage in every way. The draft constitutional amendment proposed by the Bhumjaithai Party, according to Thepthai, is 1000% certain to pass the first reading. He points out that their proposed model gives them an advantage over other parties in every aspect, thanks to their strong support base of MPs and Senators who completely control the parliamentary mechanism.
According to Thai News Agency, political observer Thepthai Senpong posted on his Facebook page, "Thepthai Political Talk," stating that the Bhumjaithai Party's draft amendment to the constitution will pass 100%. After the Bhumjaithai Party submitted a draft amendment to Article 256 of the Constitution, adding Chapter 15/1 on the drafting of a new constitution, to Mr. Sophon Saram, President of the Parliament and Speaker of the House of Representatives, there has been widespread criticism of the content of the Bhumjaithai Party's draft amendment.
As an independent political analyst, Thepthai observes that the Bhumjaithai Party's draft demonstrates readiness and leadership by being the first political party to submit their own draft. He analyzes the content of the Bhumjaithai Party's draft amendment, identifying four advantages over other political parties based on their proposed model.
Firstly, the proposal stipulates that the Constitutional Drafting Assembly (CDA) shall consist of 100 members, selected by Parliament in proportion to the number of Members of Parliament (MPs) from political parties and members of the Senate. If the CDA members are selected from both political parties and the Senate, this would give the Bhumjaithai Party a significant advantage due to its large number of MPs (192) and its at least 150 Senators (known as "blue-aligned" Senators).
Secondly, a simple majority of both houses of parliament is required to pass the constitutional amendment bill. This is not a problem for the Bhumjaithai Party's bill, because the government's Members of Parliament plus the Senate (aligned with the blue faction) already easily exceed half of the parliament.
Thirdly, it requires the approval of at least 20% of MPs from parties not in the ruling coalition or from the opposition. This point would not be a problem for the Bhumjaithai Party's draft amendment either, because obtaining 20% of the votes from opposition party members is not difficult.
Lastly, the amendment requires the approval of at least one-quarter of the total number of Senators. Originally, the Senate wanted one-third of the Senators' votes, while the House of Representatives wanted one-fifth. The Bhumjaithai Party proposed a compromise, using one-quarter of the total number of Senators, which is approximately 50 people.
Therefore, it is clear that the Bhumjaithai Party's draft constitutional amendment is the most ready and feasible. The content of the drafts submitted by other political parties, such as those from the People's Party, the Pheu Thai Party, and the Democrat Party, will also be considered to examine their substance and likelihood of passing the first reading. However, one thing is certain: the Bhumjaithai Party's draft has a 1000% chance of passing the first reading.