Bangkok: The Thai-Cambodian border is once again at a standstill due to prolonged political and military tensions, leading to clashes that have serious consequences for regional security and lives.
According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Dulyapak Precharatch, President of the Regional Studies Association and a faculty member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Thammasat University, provided an analysis of the renewed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. His analysis highlights key factors including military intent, internal politics, and Cambodia's diplomatic failure.
Associate Professor Dr. Dulyapak identified four key factors that led Cambodia to launch a new conflict. Firstly, territorial and border disputes remain a primary concern. Cambodia has long aimed to compete with Thailand for border control, particularly in the southern part of northeastern Thailand. Despite previous attempts to seize important strongholds like the Ta Kwai Temple, Cambodian forces were repelled by Thai troops.
Secondly, the use of information warfare has been a strategic move by Cambodia. It aims to provoke Thailand into responding, thus portraying Thailand as the aggressor. This could potentially lead to calls for intervention by the United Nations Security Council, pressuring Thailand to ease its security measures in disputed areas.
Thirdly, internal politics and nationalism play a role in the conflict. The Cambodian leadership has sought to gain nationalist popularity by inciting sentiments against "Siam" (Thailand) to distract from domestic issues such as economic downturns and unemployment, while overshadowing the establishment of a government-in-exile by opposition figure Sam Rainsy.
Lastly, Cambodia's diplomatic defeat at the Ottawa Convention, where Thailand presented video evidence about a new anti-personnel mine violation, pushed Cambodia to initiate a border conflict. This move aims to divert global attention and portray Cambodia as a smaller nation being bullied by Thailand.
Associate Professor Dr. Dulyapak also emphasized the diplomatic games and the involvement of superpowers. Though Thailand achieved a diplomatic victory at the Ottawa Convention, much work remains in building international support. Many countries have refrained from condemning Cambodia due to investment incentives offered by Cambodia. Thailand may need to consider reciprocal deals to garner international condemnation of Cambodia.
Regarding major powers, China is expected to maintain a neutral stance due to its significant investments in Cambodia while maintaining strong ties with Thailand. The United States, under the leadership of Donald Trump, may impose tariffs to pressure Thailand. However, Thailand's readiness to seek new markets, such as China or Russia, demonstrates its commitment to safeguarding its sovereignty.
Thai leaders have taken a firm position, with Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul confirming no further negotiations will occur unless Cambodia complies with Thailand's conditions for a ceasefire. Associate Professor Dr. Dulyapak asserts that the unity demonstrated by the Prime Minister and military leaders reflects a strong resolve in addressing Cambodia's aggression.
The future of this conflict could unfold in two main ways. A temporary halt may occur if Cambodia perceives a strategic disadvantage, although the conflict could resume in the future. Alternatively, a decisive end could be achieved if Thailand takes strong military action, potentially leading to longer-lasting peace.
ASEAN's role as a mediator is also considered, though Malaysia's current chairmanship may be perceived as biased. As the presidency transitions to the Philippines in 2026, Thailand is advised to engage diplomatically with the Philippines and Vietnam, leveraging Vietnam's expertise in Indochina affairs to exert pressure on Cambodia.