Capital markets are watching the US presidential election, which will affect the value of the baht, Thai stocks, trade, and investment. If “Trump” comes, the baht will weaken even more.
Mr. Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, Chairman of the Executive Board of Asia Plus Group Holdings Public Company Limited, said that the overall Thai stock market in the last quarter of 2024 depends on the big market like the United States, which has already risen significantly and all parties are watching the results of the US presidential election. If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election, it will have a positive effect on the business sector because stocks related to Trump will rise. However, if Kamala Harris wins the election, it is thought that it will have a different effect, which is expected that tax collection will be higher.
‘Currently, US stocks have risen. The chance of them rising further is unlikely, or only some types of stocks may rise further. As for Thai stocks, they still depend on performance. But important
ly, there is no significant foreign money coming in to buy, which may limit the rise of stocks. Now, we have to wait and see how much the Thai economy will recover. It is important for both GDP growth and listed company performance to be announced in Q3/67 to be important factors that will help push Thai stocks forward,’ said Mr. Kongkiat.
Mr. Kongkiat said that he believes that there are still some companies that are doing well, such as the retail business group, the tourism group, and the hospital group, but it depends on the price or price of each company’s stock. For bank stocks, the results for Q3/67 were not bad. But what is surprising is that after the financial statements were announced, the stocks fell. It is probably due to investors’ concerns, even though the business margin may have decreased after the interest rate was reduced or there may be an increase in bad debt. If the economy improves, the concerns will decrease accordingly.
‘I recommend that investors diversify their investments, as the
weight of the investment depends on the investor’s own perspective and how much risk they can accept because there is no fixed formula. People who like high risks invest in stocks with high growth and higher stock prices. Those who are considered conservative look at stocks with low prices and high dividends. However, investors must balance or create a balance in their investment portfolio, which is a way to diversify risks and reduce the chances of losses,’ said Mr. Kongkiat.
KGI Securities said that Trump has a higher chance of winning the election, which has raised new concerns about ‘inflation and bond yields’ that will rise, which may have a negative impact on Asian and Thai stock markets in the short term. It believes that if Harris wins the election, the global market will continue to rise.
Mr. Amorntep Chawala, Assistant Managing Director, Head of Research, CIMB Thai Bank, revealed that he sees the Thai economy in 2025 expanding by only 2.5% in the case of Trump, compared to 3.2% in the case of Harr
is. He expects that in addition to slowing exports and pressuring private investment to grow more slowly, domestic demand will weaken due to falling commodity prices, especially rice, rubber, and cassava, which will affect agricultural income nationwide, including low-income households in rural areas, which will be severely affected by the decline in purchasing power. However, he believes that private consumption can still grow driven by the tourism sector and the government’s cash handout measures.
‘The Thai economy under Trump’s trade and economic policies is likely to be more volatile than under Harris, especially due to China’s attempts to reduce its economic power, which will pressure trade and investment in the ASEAN region,’ said Dr. Amorntep.
Mr. Amorntep also sees that in the event that Trump wins the election, even though the Fed may cut interest rates more than expected, the market is expected to weigh the risks, including the US government bond yields that may remain high, reflecting concerns ab
out the budget deficit and higher public debt, which will cause investors to sell risky assets in emerging markets and return their money to hold US dollars instead, causing the dollar to strengthen and the baht to weaken. It is expected that the baht may weaken to 34 baht per US dollar by the end of 2025.
On the contrary, if Harris wins the election, the Fed will gradually cut interest rates in line with the downward trend of inflation. Investors will reduce their interest in the dollar. The baht is likely to reach 32.50 baht per dollar by the end of 2025.
Source: Thai News Agency
