Bangkok: The Thai baht has weakened to its lowest level in two weeks, prompting market watchers to shift their focus toward the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
According to Thai News Agency, the Kasikorn Research Center reported that the baht's depreciation was coupled with a decline in the Thai stock market due to profit-taking and external risk factors. Market attention is now turning to fund flows, the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) meetings, and the global economic outlook. The baht is expected to fluctuate within a range of 31.70-32.70 baht per dollar, while the stock index is projected to remain volatile within the 1,430-1,495 point range.
Kasikorn Research Center indicated that the baht weakened throughout the last week, primarily due to increased tensions in the Middle East, especially concerning the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty regarding US-Iran negotiations, which led to higher global oil prices. This, combined with foreign investors' net selling in the Thai stock market, resulted in the baht reaching its weakest level in two weeks at 32.51 baht per dollar. The currency showed a slight recovery owing to selling pressure on the US dollar and unexpectedly positive Thai export data, closing at 32.45 baht per dollar, weaker than the previous week.
In the Thai stock market, the SET index experienced a decline for most of the week. Trading commenced within a narrow range before profit-taking in large-cap stocks, particularly in the banking and retail sectors, exerted additional pressure. Uncertainty over peace negotiations in the Middle East and selling in technology stocks towards the week's end further strained the investment environment. Consequently, the SET index closed at 1,456.10 points, a 1.78% decrease from the previous week, with a significant reduction in average daily trading volume by 17.32%.
Looking ahead to the coming week (April 27 - May 1, 2026), Kasikorn Bank anticipates the Thai baht to trade within a range of 31.70-32.70 baht per US dollar. Critical factors include foreign capital flows, outcomes of the MPC meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and sessions of other major central banks like the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the Bank of England (BOE), and the European Central Bank (ECB), which may indicate global interest rate directions. The market is also keenly awaiting significant US economic data, including March PCE/Core PCE inflation figures, Q1 2026 GDP estimates, ISM/PMI manufacturing indices, and employment figures. Internationally, focus areas include Eurozone Q1 GDP figures and manufacturing PMI indices from China, Japan, and the UK, alongside developments in the Middle East and global oil price trends.
For the Thai stock market, Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. identifies support levels at 1,430 and 1,415 points, with resistance levels at 1,470 and 1,495 points. Close attention to first-quarter 2026 earnings reports from listed companies and foreign capital flows remains crucial for determining short-term market trends.