Bangkok:Thailand is expected to enter winter early next week, approximately 2-3 weeks later than usual, the Meteorological Department has announced. This delayed onset is attributed to several meteorological factors, resulting in a projected period of less cold weather and higher-than-normal temperatures compared to last year.
According to Thai News Agency, the Meteorological Department has issued a weather warning for unstable conditions in upper Thailand and heavy to very heavy rainfall in the South, affecting the period from November 8-9, 2026. While rainfall will decrease in upper Thailand, thunderstorms are still expected in some areas. The South will experience increased rainfall, with heavy to very heavy rain in some locations, posing risks of flash floods and landslides. This weather pattern is influenced by a cold air mass from China and strengthened easterly winds over Thailand and the Gulf of Thailand.
The onset of winter is anticipated to meet all three criteria early next week consistently low temperatures in upper Thailand below 23 degrees Celsius, a shift in lower-level winds to northeasterly or easterly, and westerly upper-level winds, alongside a continuous decrease in rainfall in upper Thailand. Normally, Thailand enters the winter season around mid-October, but this year's delay is linked to climate change and shifting wind patterns.
This is not the first time Thailand has experienced a late start to winter. In 2023, winter began on November 14, a year marked by strong El Niño conditions. With similar meteorological factors observed in 2026, a comparable start to winter weather patterns is anticipated. The Meteorological Department's forecast for the winter of 2026-2027 indicates an average minimum temperature of 22-23 degrees Celsius in upper Thailand, about 2 degrees higher than normal. The coldest period is expected from late December 2026 to early February 2027, with potential for frost in mountain peaks and high elevations.
In the southern region, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected during November and December, particularly along the Gulf of Thailand, due to strong northeast monsoons. The influence of low-pressure systems or tropical cyclones may also impact the area. Residents in vulnerable regions are advised to stay alert for heavy rainfall, flash floods, and landslides, and to follow updates from the Meteorological Department.