Bangkok: The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) Savings Cooperative recently conducted a seminar to analyze Thai Airways stock in anticipation of the stock market unlock event in February 2026. The seminar aimed to equip cooperative members with crucial information necessary for making informed decisions on buying or selling Thai Airways shares. The event highlighted the need for comprehensive data analysis while brokers offered insights into opportunities, risks, and effective selling strategies.
According to Thai News Agency, the seminar was titled "Analyzing Thai Airways Stock: Fundamental Price and Effective Sales Strategies" and was organized by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) Savings Cooperative Limited. It sought to prepare cooperative members for a critical period in 2026 when certain shares will exit their lock-up period, potentially increasing trading volume and affecting share prices and liquidity. The impending end of the lock-up period stems from trading restrictions on shares converted from debt during Thai Airways' business rehabilitation plan.
The lifting of these restrictions will allow shareholders to trade their shares more freely from February 4, 2026. This significant increase in tradable shares is expected to test the market's capacity to absorb the supply, with potential short-term downward pressure on stock prices if there is a large surge in selling.
Mr. Chatchai Rojchanaratanangkoon, Chairman of the Cooperative, emphasized the forum's goal of providing complete information to aid decision-making without dictating whether members should sell their shares. He advised considering both fundamental and technical data while cautioning against decisions driven by emotions or short-term gains. He noted that a large-scale simultaneous sale could adversely affect share prices and members' benefits.
The seminar also featured perspectives from securities firms. Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Public Company Limited outlined three options for selling shares: gradual sales through the regular trading board, big lot sales, and large-scale sales to select investors via placement or block trade. They highlighted the risks of gradual sales on price pressure and the potential benefits of block trades in mitigating price impact, recommending a tailored sales approach based on market liquidity.
TISCO Securities Co., Ltd. shared insights into Thai Airways' positive factors and challenges. They noted the airline's advantage on long-haul routes but cautioned about rising costs from aircraft purchases and maintenance in 2026, which may reduce profits by around 25%. They also pointed to the expected intensification of competition in the domestic aviation market and the incomplete recovery of the Chinese tourist market.
Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited projected a decrease in jet fuel costs and an expansion in market and flight numbers, forecasting average annual profits of approximately 30 billion baht for Thai Airways between 2026-2028. Technical analysis suggested the stock is in a consolidation phase, with support around 6-6.5 baht and resistance at 10 and 12 baht, setting a year-end 2026 target price at 8.30 baht.
The EGAT Savings Cooperative's chairman reiterated the forum's purpose of providing members with vital information to navigate the transition period for Thai Airways shares in early 2026, emphasizing market timing, sales methods, and share price impacts to protect shareholder interests and market stability.