Beijing: China's population has declined for four consecutive years. China, the world's second-largest economy, is facing a fourth consecutive year of population decline by 2025, while its economy experienced its slowest growth in three years in the last quarter of the same year.
According to Thai News Agency, data released today by China's National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2025, China will have a population of 1.405 billion, a decrease of 3.39 million from 2024 and a continuous decline since 2022. The total number of births will be 7.92 million, down from 9.54 million in 2024. The total number of deaths will be 11.31 million, up from 10.93 million in 2024. Meanwhile, marriages, used as an indicator of the birth rate in China, are projected to fall by one-fifth in 2024, the largest drop on record, with only 6.1 million registered marriages, down from 7.68 million in 2023.
China's declining population, coupled with a rapidly aging existing population, poses a significant obstacle to the government's plans to boost domestic consumption and control national debt, as millions will retire at a time when the state pension budget is already strained.
Data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, released on the same day, showed that the Chinese economy expanded by 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of 2024, the lowest rate in three years and a decrease from the 4.8 percent growth in the third quarter, but higher than analysts' expectations of 4.4 percent. The economy is projected to grow by 5.0 percent for the entire year of 2025, in line with China's official target.
Analysts point out that China's export and manufacturing sectors are expected to recover significantly in 2025, but this cannot compensate for the continued sluggishness in the real estate sector and domestic consumption. Fourth-quarter economic figures from last year indicate that the Chinese economy will experience weak growth this year and will not see a new upward trend. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have previously warned China to shift its focus to domestic consumption growth and reduce its reliance on exports and investment due to long-term risks. Meanwhile, economists state that the Chinese government has not done enough to limit overcapacity in industrial production and eliminate price wars.