Bangkok: Thai rice exports are projected to face a significant decline in 2025, with an estimated 30% contraction in value to US$4,516.2 million, as revealed by the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO). This drop marks a considerable shift following four years of steady growth in Thai agricultural exports, now expected to shrink by 4.1%, reflecting broader pressures on agricultural commodities.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Nantapong Chiraleartpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTPS), attributed the downturn in rice exports to intensified global market competition concerning both price and quantity. Additionally, demand in certain markets is waning, causing rice, which ranked as the second-highest valued agricultural export from 2023 to 2024, to slip to fourth place in 2025.
The structure of the export market for Thai agricultural products remains heavily concentrated, with China being the primary market accounting for a significant share. Any slowdown or instability in this key market could directly affect crucial exports such as rice. There is an urgent need to diversify markets and reduce dependency on any single market to mitigate these risks.
Mr. Nantapong emphasized the importance of restructuring Thailand's rice export strategy, urging a shift from focusing solely on quantity and price competition to enhancing quality and adding value. This strategy involves developing rice varieties tailored to niche markets and specific consumer needs, including high-quality rice or rice with unique standards and selling points, to improve sustainable long-term competitiveness.
Efforts to upgrade quality, differentiate products, and expand into new markets, while maintaining existing ones, will be crucial in strengthening Thai rice exports amid the challenges of an increasingly volatile global trade environment.