Bangkok: The current conflict between the United States and Iran has been compared to a "Game of Chicken," a tense situation where neither side is willing to back down. Associate Professor Dr. Somchai Pakphasanwiwat analyzed the current situation as a deadlock, where both sides are caught in a cycle of assessing that they hold the upper hand, making it impossible to find a mutually beneficial compromise.
According to Thai News Agency, the US's extension of the ceasefire is not seen as an act of kindness but rather part of an "escalate to de-escalate" strategy. The US is reportedly increasing pressure by deploying a large contingent of troops and warships, including a third aircraft carrier, to create a "bringmanship" scenario, pushing the situation to its most dangerous point to force Iran to negotiate under US conditions. Iran interprets this as a tactic to buy time before a potential attack and maintains a strong sense of distrust.
Both sides possess their own bargaining tools and are confident in their ability to inflict damage on the other. The United States focuses on applying maximum pressure through economic sanctions aimed at cutting off Iran's main revenue source and blocking oil distribution channels. Meanwhile, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important point for global oil transportation, and can use mine-laying tactics as a negotiating tool. Additionally, networks of allies and the Houthi group can disrupt shipping lanes in the Red Sea, impacting the economies of U.S. allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
Associate Professor Dr. Somchai outlined three key conditions for a potential compromise. These include uranium enrichment, where the point of contention is the level of concentration and duration allowed, with Iran currently reaching 60%. The second condition involves opening the Strait of Hormuz, which includes technical details such as removing mines to test the sincerity of the United States. The third condition is compensation and sanctions relief, where the US may ease sanctions instead of paying direct damages, although excessive relief could empower Iran, a concern for both the US and Israel.
Distrust remains the most difficult obstacle in negotiations. Beyond the nuclear issue, the US wants Iran to cease supporting militant groups and developing missiles, while Iran demands a US withdrawal from the Middle East. There is also pressure regarding retaliation for past assassinations of leaders and military operations that continue to leave deep scars.
However, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Somchai predicts this situation will be a prolonged game. Even if temporary fighting occurs, it will be limited in scope due to the high cost of war for both sides. The most likely solution is repeated temporary ceasefires to extend the time for detailed negotiations, which could take years, as seen with the 2015 agreement.