Bangkok: Decoding Global Risks in 2026: When Renewable Energy Becomes the Insurance Policy of the New Economy. By 2026, the world is entering what is called a "perma-crisis," a state where various crises overlap endlessly, ranging from the impact of pandemics and rising public debt to wars in the Middle East directly affecting energy prices. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Danuwat Sagarik has pointed out that uncertainty has become the new and more severe normal, to the point where traditional economic models may no longer be effective.
According to Thai News Agency, amidst the volatility, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Danuwat suggested four strategies that various countries, including Thailand, should urgently build to create economic resilience. The first is productivity, focusing on human capital by accelerating the upskilling and reskilling of the workforce to increase productivity in a rapidly changing world. Next is self-reliance, which involves balancing dependence on the global economy with self-reliance, especially in terms of factors of production and energy. This aims to reduce the risk associated with dependence on a single production source.
The third strategy is macro stability, achieved by modernizing laws and regulations to meet the challenges of the modern world. Lastly, the green transition is emphasized, with a call to accelerate the transition to a green economy in a concrete and rapid manner to address climate change, which is beginning to clearly impact the cost of living and electricity bills.
Dr. Danuwat's analysis highlights renewable energy as a crucial component, likening it to an "insurance policy." While initial investments like installing solar panels may seem costly, they serve as a premium against energy shocks and crises in energy prices due to geopolitical factors. Diversifying energy sources will give businesses greater resilience, preventing disruptions like those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russo-Ukraine war.
Regarding Thailand, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Danuwat believes that the country is not falling behind and continues to keep up with global trends. The challenge lies in adapting as quickly as the speed of global change, particularly in AI adoption and enhancing human capabilities. The government should strengthen support mechanisms for this. At the policy level, considerations are being made to adjust the electricity tariff structure using a "tiered" system to assist low-income earners and promote solar panel installation through Net Billing and Direct PPA (direct power purchase agreement) to reduce obstacles for people who want to generate their own electricity.
However, preparing for uncertainty is deemed the only way to turn a crisis into a test. Investing in clean energy and human potential today is not just an option for protecting the planet but the most crucial survival strategy for the economy in 2026.