Bangkok: The Ministry of Finance has projected Thailand's GDP to grow by 2.2 percent in 2025, while expressing concerns over potential delays in the 2027 budget, a slowing global economy, challenges from US import tariffs, and weakening exports.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Vinit Visetsuwannapoom, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office and spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance, announced the economic growth forecast, which marks a decrease from the previous forecast of 2.4 percent. The revision is attributed to lower-than-expected GDP growth due to flooding in Hat Yai district, a global economic slowdown, and oil refinery maintenance shutdowns. Despite these challenges, the Thai economy is expected to pick up pace in the fourth quarter of 2025, aided by initiatives like the "Half-Price Plus" project and welfare card top-ups. These measures are anticipated to inject nearly 100 billion baht into the economy, bolstering production, employment, and income distribution, particularly for small businesses.
The Ministry also highlighted domestic tourism stimulus measures, such as the "Travel Well, Get a Refund" program, which is contributing to growth in private consumption by 3.3 percent, exports by 12.7 percent, government consumption by 0.5 percent, government investment by 6.9 percent, and private investment by 2.9 percent. The overall inflation rate is projected at -0.1 percent, due to lower energy prices, while the current account balance is expected to be in surplus at US$15.4 billion, or 2.8 percent of GDP.
Looking ahead to 2026, the Ministry forecasts a GDP growth rate of 2 percent. Exports are expected to slow, with growth projected at 1 percent in US dollar terms due to a global trade slowdown. The number of foreign tourists is anticipated to reach 35.5 million, with private consumption and private investment expected to grow by 2.5 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. However, government investment is predicted to contract by -1.7 percent, potentially due to political transitions delaying the 2027 budget preparation. The Ministry recommends swift budget disbursement measures to counteract this impact.
In terms of domestic stability, the inflation rate is expected to be 0.3 percent annually, with the current account balance projected to remain in surplus at US$12.0 billion, or 2.0 percent of GDP. The Ministry aims to maintain fiscal stability by integrating the informal economy into the formal system to expand the tax base and manage the government budget efficiently. This includes accelerating structural adjustments through investment in future industries and upgrading innovation to align with global trade needs.
The Ministry of Finance is also monitoring global trade system volatility, financial vulnerabilities such as high household and SME debt, and maintaining stability during political transitions to ensure continued investor confidence.