Bangkok: Inflation in Thailand has continued its downward trend for the ninth consecutive month as of December 2025, resulting in a projected 0.14% decrease in inflation for the year, marking the first instance of negative inflation in five years.
According to Thai News Agency, the primary contributors to this decline include lower-than-average global crude oil prices and the absence of government economic stimulus measures following the election.
Mr. Nantapong Chiraleartpong, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) and spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, reported that Thailand's general consumer price index (CPI) for December 2025 stood at 100.19, reflecting a 0.28% year-on-year decrease. This figure surpassed market expectations, which ranged from a decline of 0.22% to 0.35%. The sustained reduction in inflation is attributed to a combination of lower global energy prices, reduced fuel fund levies, and promotional activities in the personal care sector, despite rising prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages.
As of November 2025, Thailand's overall inflation rate decreased by 0.49% year-on-year, placing it as the seventh lowest among 132 global economies and the lowest among the nine ASEAN countries reporting figures. This trend underlines the impact of global energy price trends and government measures designed to alleviate living costs.
Looking ahead to 2026, inflation is forecasted to range between 0.0% and 1.0%, with the first quarter expected to remain negative, ranging from -0.5% to 0.0%. The projection takes into account the lower oil price base, weak economic demand, and potential commodity price increases due to natural disasters. The anticipated improvement in inflation is contingent on government economic stimulus measures, the recovery of the tourism sector, and accelerated government budget disbursement.
The headline inflation rate for 2026 is expected to rise to a range of 0.0% to 1.0%, driven by increasing agricultural commodity prices and a resurgence in tourism. Despite these positive indicators, challenges such as global crude oil prices, the appreciation of the Thai baht, low economic growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and climate change-induced natural disasters persist.
Mr. Nanthapong emphasized the importance of continuous government stimulus measures during economic slowdowns to maintain an inflation rate within the target range of 1-3%. He noted that healthy inflation should result from increased purchasing power rather than structural issues, highlighting the role of government spending, job creation, and improved farmer incomes in achieving quality inflation growth.