Bangkok: The baht strengthened for the first time in over two months, testing the 32.10 baht per dollar level before adjusting to around 32.10-32.12 baht per dollar this morning, compared to the closing price of 32.20 baht per dollar last Friday. Gold prices fluctuated seven times this morning, opening at 550 baht per gold, as the market anticipates a Fed interest rate hike.
According to Thai News Agency, the Kasikorn Research Center stated that the baht strengthened in line with most regional currencies, while the dollar continued to be under pressure from speculation about a potential US interest rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting. Furthermore, sentiment in Asian currencies was indirectly supported by the yen, which was boosted by the Japanese Ministry of Finance's warning about excessive volatility. Additionally, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor's stance indicated that the BOJ was not closing the door on the pros and cons of a rate hike at its December 18-19 meeting.
The baht's movement is initially estimated at 32.00-32.25 baht per dollar today. Key factors to monitor include Thailand's November inflation figures, foreign fund flows, the direction of Asian currencies, and global gold prices. International factors to monitor include the November manufacturing PMIs for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US, as well as the November US ISM manufacturing index.
The Gold Traders Association reported that this morning, the price of gold in Thailand has fluctuated seven times. In the first round, the price increased by 550 baht per baht of gold. In the seventh round, the selling price of gold bars was 64,350 baht per baht of gold, while gold ornaments were sold at 65,150 baht, based on a spot price of $4,236 per ounce and an exchange rate of 32.11 baht per dollar.
An analysis from Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures Co., Ltd. indicates that global gold prices have seen an upward trend, as the dollar index (DXY) has fallen for the fourth day to 99.47 units from 100.21 units. This follows the CME Fed Watch market's 87.4% prediction that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates by 0.25% this December.
Despite these economic developments, US President Donald Trump has announced plans to cancel millions of immigrants from the country. US Citizenship and Immigration Services chief Joseph Edlow has said the agency, under Trump's orders, is conducting a full-scale review of every green card issued by every foreign national from countries of concern.
In addition, US giant Verizon laid off 13,000 workers in November, and General Motors, Amazon, and Target laid off 1,700, 14,000, and 1,800 workers in October, respectively. Both of these factors could put downward pressure on the labor market.
However, the US 10-year bond yield has started to recover to 4.01% from a low of 3.96%. The SPDR Gold Trust's holdings remain unchanged, with a net total of 1,045.43 tonnes.
The global gold price is expected to rise and test resistance levels at $4,245 and $4,260. Therefore, it is estimated that after testing resistance, global gold prices may adjust downward to test support at $4,200, with a chance of rebounding later. However, if global gold falls below the next support level at $4,180, it could return to a sideways upward trend. Domestic gold prices are in an upward trend, following global gold prices.