Bangkok: As the 100-day mark since the onset of the war in Iran nears its June 8th milestone, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East remains tumultuous, with the United States and Israel deeply involved in a complex web of strategic maneuvers.
According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Piti Srisangnam highlights the United States' use of coercive diplomacy, a strategy characterized by simultaneous military engagement and negotiation. This approach, intended to enhance bargaining power through intimidation, has paradoxically eroded US diplomatic credibility. Neutral observers increasingly view the US as duplicitous and unreliable, raising concerns about its role on the global stage.
Initially aimed at regime change in Iran, the US strategy has evolved over the past 100 days. The regime's unexpected resilience and public support have prompted a shift towards containment. Leveraging the Abraham Accords, the US seeks to establish a geopolitical buffer zone akin to a "NATO in the Middle East" to safeguard Israel, while also attempting to counter China's influence through the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
The war's impact has been keenly felt in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's retaliatory closure of the strait has disrupted global supply chains and energy security. Dr. Piti warns that even a future ceasefire would require extensive resources to restore oil production and transportation, given the prolonged shutdown of critical infrastructure.
This scenario underscores the decline of the Hegemonic Stability theory, which suggests that superpowers maintain global order. In contrast, China's emergence as a stabilizing force is drawing countries towards it, heightening the likelihood of a "Thucydides Trap" scenario-a potential clash between the world's leading superpowers.
For Thailand, Dr. Piti advises prioritizing food security to establish itself as a global breadbasket while diversifying energy sources to reduce dependence on the Middle East. Additionally, he cautions against the manipulation of religious issues for political gain, urging vigilance to safeguard national sovereignty.