Bangkok: The Land Bridge project, designed to connect the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand, is under scrutiny as experts question its economic viability and potential risks. The project aims to revolutionize Thailand's transportation system by facilitating the transfer of goods via rail or motorways across the country. However, Associate Professor Dr. Nipon Puapongsakorn from TDRI has highlighted several concerns regarding the project's feasibility.
According to Thai News Agency, Dr. Nipon criticized the quality of the feasibility study reports, pointing out issues with cost-benefit analysis. He cited past instances where figures were manipulated to secure project approval by underestimating costs and overestimating benefits. This practice, he notes, remains prevalent among Thai government agencies when hiring consulting firms for project promotion.
The reports from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) present contradictory assumptions. The Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning predicts the handling of 20 million containers in 30 years, while studies from Chulalongkorn University and Dubai World estimate only 2-3 million. Additionally, claims of time savings by bypassing the Strait of Malacca are contested by reports suggesting higher costs and longer durations due to loading and unloading processes.
Further scrutiny is directed at the projected economic returns, with some reports indicating rates as high as 14.7-17.4%. Dr. Nipon calls for a thorough reassessment of these assumptions, stressing the need for public disclosure of cost and time models to ensure transparency.
Beyond economic figures, the project poses significant structural and social impacts. Land expropriation issues, environmental concerns, and the potential tax burden on the public are notable hidden costs. Dr. Nipon warns that private sector investments might be deterred by unclear reports, potentially leading the government to incur public debt if the project fails to be cost-effective.
To address these issues, Dr. Nipon suggests reforms for transparency and sustainability. He recommends that a neutral agency like NESDC commission the studies to avoid conflicts of interest. Additionally, consulting firms should face penalties for manipulating figures, and political transparency should be ensured through the investigation of land speculation and disclosure of land transfer information.
While the Land Bridge project aims to boost Thailand's economy, Dr. Nipon cautions that it may pose a significant risk if it proceeds with distorted assumptions and a lack of transparency, ultimately impacting the country's fiscal and social stability.